To the World, Trump 2.0 Looks Even More Likely Now

 Foreign diplomats have been closely watching the increasingly toxic political landscape in the United States with a mix of intrigue and unease. The recent attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump has led some diplomats to predict that he will likely win the upcoming presidential election in November and that more political violence may be on the horizon.

These assessments, which are likely being swiftly communicated through classified diplomatic cables to leaders back home, are not made lightly. For diplomats representing countries friendly with the United States, the prospect of instability in America is particularly unsettling, as it could have far-reaching global implications.

Diplomats' insights hold significant weight, as it is their job to closely monitor the political dynamics of other nations, and their assessments can shape how their governments respond to events.

In conversations with diplomats from three different continents, a common sentiment emerged: the attack on Trump has made his victory in the upcoming election more probable.

"The shooting makes Trump's victory in the election more likely," said one Latin American diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"It is a powerful drive for that," acknowledged a senior European diplomat.

"It sealed his victory," predicted an African diplomat.

These diplomats are well aware that four months is a considerable amount of time in the context of a U.S. election cycle, and unexpected developments can still occur. They have been wrong before, such as in their predictions about Trump's 2016 and 2020 electoral outcomes.

However, in recent weeks, some capitals had already begun to see Trump as a stronger candidate, largely due to the perceived weaknesses of President Joe Biden, exemplified by his widely criticized debate performance. Within the Democratic Party, there are ongoing discussions about whether Biden's age and health make him fit to remain the party's candidate.

Foreign governments routinely prepare for various political outcomes, but a loss of confidence in the Biden administration could have significant consequences for the United States. Other nations may decide to delay or curtail cooperation on important matters, preferring to wait for a new administration to take office.

Some diplomats suspect that because Trump has now been the victim of political violence, it may become more challenging for Biden and other Democrats to criticize him, at least in the short term. The image of a bloodied Trump defiantly pumping his fist and shouting "Fight! Fight!" has been broadcast around the world, potentially bolstering his personal image and authority.

This development, in the eyes of these diplomats, could further polarize the already tense political landscape in the United States, as both Republicans and Democrats seek to capitalize on the incident. The diplomats have already observed worrying signs of political violence, including the January 6th, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol, and they fear that such incidents may become increasingly commonplace.

The potential consequences of a Trump victory are also a source of concern for many foreign governments. A shift towards a more idiosyncratic and transactional approach to foreign policy could have significant implications for U.S. relationships with allies and adversaries alike. European governments, in particular, are worried about the potential impact of Ukraine's ongoing conflict with Russia.

As the U.S. political landscape continues to evolve, foreign diplomats remain vigilant, concerned about the potential for further instability and the impact it could have on the global order.

For many foreign officials, especially those in countries friendly with Washington, stability in America is critical. While no one is predicting a second U.S. civil war, even a distracted U.S. government could mean global problems that need Washington's involvement get neglected, fueling instability beyond U.S. borders.

Some foreign diplomats are also wondering whether, in the wake of the assassination attempt, a future President Trump will find more reasons and less pushback in trying to impose an authoritarian vision on America. Trump has often expressed sympathy for anti-democratic ideas.

As a Latin American diplomat stated, "The main concern is for U.S. democracy. There is a real potential for radicalism and increased violence. The reactions of Trump himself and other politicians will be crucial: Will they raise the temperature or lower it?"

Stability in the United States is a key priority for many foreign nations. Any disruption or distraction in the U.S. government could have widespread global implications, as international problems requiring American involvement may be neglected. Furthermore, there are concerns that a future Trump presidency, coming after the assassination attempt, could lead to the imposition of authoritarian policies given Trump's past sympathy for anti-democratic concepts. Ultimately, how U.S. leaders respond in this charged environment will be pivotal in determining whether tensions escalate or de-escalate.